Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close below 4% on Aug 31, 2026?

Implied probability

54%YES

Closes in

49d 14h 40m

54% Yes46% No

Total volume$25,886

These are the market's public odds — the price the crowd is setting in real time. Every individual position behind them stays encrypted on-chain, so no one can see who bet what.

Prediction flow

Indicative

Prediction momentum over time. Individual positions stay private.

Trending up41 positions

Recent activity

0 positions · all anonymous

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Resolution & rules

Resolves YES if the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield closes below 4.00% on 2026-08-31. Resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle V3.

Closes

Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Settlement

Pro-rata payout

Winners split the entire pool, pro-rata to their stake.

Losing positions receive nothing.

If unresolved 7 days after close, the market voids and everyone is refunded.

All positions stay encrypted until the market settles.

Confidentiality enforced on-chain by Zama — privacy by protocol, not by promise.

Take a position

Encrypted on-chain

Confidential balance$0.00 USDC

Amount

$USDC

To win (at 54% implied)≈ $46.29

Your position stays encrypted end to end. Amount and side are sealed before leaving your device — the contract operates on ciphertext only. No node, indexer, or oracle can read your position. Only your wallet can decrypt it.

Encryption layer warming up…

Resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle V3

Real OOV3 on Sepolia — no trusted oracle key

Once this market closes, anyone can post a bond and assert the outcome — that's UMA's optimistic-oracle model (the same layer Polymarket uses). If nobody disputes within the liveness window, it settles automatically and resolves this market on-chain.