Will a human-rated commercial space station be operational by 2028?

Implied probability

28%YES

Closes in

536d 15h 49m

28% Yes72% No

Total volume$46,313

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Prediction flow

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Resolution & rules

Resolves YES if any commercial space station (Axiom, Starlab, etc.) is certified for crewed operations and has hosted at least one human before January 1, 2028.

Closes

Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM

Settlement

Pro-rata payout

Winners split the entire pool, pro-rata to their stake.

Losing positions receive nothing.

If unresolved 7 days after close, the market voids and everyone is refunded.

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Take a position

Encrypted on-chain

Confidential balance$0.00 USDC

Amount

$USDC

To win (at 28% implied)≈ $89.28

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