Will SpaceX complete a crewed Starship orbital flight by Aug 31, 2026?

Implied probability

28%YES

Closes in

49d 14h 39m

28% Yes72% No

Total volume$24,004

These are the market's public odds — the price the crowd is setting in real time. Every individual position behind them stays encrypted on-chain, so no one can see who bet what.

Prediction flow

Indicative

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Resolution & rules

Resolves YES if a Starship vehicle carrying at least one human reaches stable Earth orbit on or before 2026-08-31.

Closes

Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Settlement

Pro-rata payout

Winners split the entire pool, pro-rata to their stake.

Losing positions receive nothing.

If unresolved 7 days after close, the market voids and everyone is refunded.

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Take a position

Encrypted on-chain

Confidential balance$0.00 USDC

Amount

$USDC

To win (at 28% implied)≈ $89.28

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