Will OpenAI announce a new flagship model before July 31, 2026?

Implied probability

69%YES

Closes in

18d 14h 39m

69% Yes31% No

Total volume$46,741

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Prediction flow

Indicative

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Resolution & rules

Resolves YES if OpenAI publicly announces a new flagship-tier model (successor to its current top model) on or before 2026-07-31. Resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle V3.

Closes

Jul 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Settlement

Pro-rata payout

Winners split the entire pool, pro-rata to their stake.

Losing positions receive nothing.

If unresolved 7 days after close, the market voids and everyone is refunded.

All positions stay encrypted until the market settles.

Confidentiality enforced on-chain by Zama — privacy by protocol, not by promise.

Take a position

Encrypted on-chain

Confidential balance$0.00 USDC

Amount

$USDC

To win (at 69% implied)≈ $36.23

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Resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle V3

Real OOV3 on Sepolia — no trusted oracle key

Once this market closes, anyone can post a bond and assert the outcome — that's UMA's optimistic-oracle model (the same layer Polymarket uses). If nobody disputes within the liveness window, it settles automatically and resolves this market on-chain.